Vegas Bets on Romney

"Peter" has some thoughts on Obama's re-election campaign.

A Las Vegas "odds maker" opines on why Obama will get trounced by Romney in November.
Interesting analysis and only a minute or so to read.

Most political predictions are made by biased pollsters, pundits, or prognosticators who are either rooting for Republicans or Democrats. I am neither. I am a former Libertarian Vice Presidential nominee, and a well-known Vegas oddsmakerwith one of the most accurate records of predicting political races.

But as an odds maker with a pretty remarkable track record of picking political races, I play no favorites. I simply use common sense to call them as I see them. Back in late December I released my New Years Predictions. I predicted back then- before a single GOP primary had been held, with Romney trailing for months to almost every GOP competitor from Rick Perry to Herman Cain to Newt- that Romney would easily rout his competition to win the GOP nomination by a landslide. I also predicted that the Presidential race between Obama and Romney would be very close until election day. But that on election day Romney would win by a landslide similar to Reagan-Carter in 1980.

Understanding history, today I am even more convinced of a resounding Romney victory. 32 years ago at this moment in time, Reagan was losing by 9 points to Carter. Romney is right now running even in polls. So why do most pollsters give Obama the edge?

First, most pollsters are missing one ingredient- common sense. Here is my gut instinct. Not one American who voted for McCain 4 years ago will switch to Obama. Not one in all the land. But many millions of people who voted for an unknown Obama 4 years ago are angry, disillusioned, turned off, or scared about the future. Voters know Obama now- and that is a bad harbinger.

Now to an analysis of the voting blocks that matter in U.S. politics:

1) Black voters. Obama has nowhere to go but down among this group. His endorsement of gay marriage has alienated many black church-going Christians. He may get 88% of their vote instead of the 96% he got in 2008. This is not good news for Obama.

2) Hispanic voters. Obama has nowhere to go but down among this group. If Romney picks Rubio as his VP running-mate the GOP may pick up an extra 10% to 15% of Hispanic voters (plus lock downFlorida ). This is not good news for Obama.

3) Jewish voters. Obama has been weak in his support of Israel . Many Jewish voters and big donors are angry and disappointed. I predict Obama's Jewish support drops from 78% in 2008 to the low 60’s. This is not good news for Obama.

4) Youth voters. Obama’s biggest and most enthusiastic believers from 4 years ago have graduated into a job market from hell. Young people are disillusioned, frightened, and broke- a bad combination. The enthusiasm is long gone. Turnout will be much lower among young voters, as will actual voting percentages. This not good news for Obama.

5) Catholic voters. Obama won a majority of Catholics in 2008. That won’t happen again. Out of desperation to please women, Obama went to war with the Catholic Church over contraception. Now he is being sued by the Catholic Church. Majority lost. This is not good news for Obama.

6)

Small Business owners.Because I ran for Vice President last time around, and I'm a small businessman myself, I know literally thousands of small business owners. At least 40% of them in my circle of friends, fans and supporters voted for Obama 4 years ago to “give someone different a chance.” I warned them that he would pursue a war on capitalism and demonize anyone who owned a business...that he’d support unions over the private sector in a big way...that he'd overwhelm the economy with spending and debt. My friends didn’t listen. Four years later, I can't find one person in my circle of small business owner friends voting for Obama. Not one. This is not good news for Obama.

7) Blue collar working class whites.Do I need to say a thing? White working class voters are about as happy with Obama as Boston Red Sox fans feel about the New York Yankees. This is not good news for Obama.

8) Suburban moms. The issue isn’t contraception…it’s having a job to pay for contraception. Obama’s economy frightens these moms. They are worried about putting food on the table. They fear for their children’s future. This is not good news for Obama.

9) Military Veterans. McCain won this group by 10 points. Romney is winning by 24 points. The more our military vets got to see of Obama, the more they disliked him. This is not good news for Obama.
Add it up. Is there one major group where Obama has gained since 2008? Will anyone in America wake up on election day saying “I didn’t vote for Obama 4 years ago. But he’s done such a fantastic job, I can’t wait to vote for him today.” Does anyone feel that a vote for Obama makes their job more secure?
Forget the polls. My gut instincts as a Vegas oddsmaker and common sense small businessman tell me this will be a historic landslide and a world-class repudiation of Obama’s radical and risky socialist agenda. It's Reagan-Carter all over again.

But I’ll give Obama credit for one thing- he is living proof that familiarity breeds contempt.

 

 

Comments

[Ernie]

Anyone with the ability to think and reason will not wake up and vote for the emir Obama. However, there are a lot of people who don't think/reason. Blacks will vote 90% for him. Jews 65-70%. Hispanics 50-60%. Anyone who's made a career of blood sucking the gov't/taxpayers 90%. Muslims 90%. Entertainment industry 80%. Educators 75%. Did I leave anyone out?

[Tyler]

While most of what you say may well be true, I have one concern and that is whether people disenfranchised with the president will stay home rather than cast a vote for Romney. As a man in my early thirties raised in a staunchly Democrat family, I was a DNC committee person in my district at the unprecedented age of 20. I resigned in 2008 after Senator Clinton's primary defeat when I realized the extreme left had taken control of my party leaving no room for conservative leaning democrats. I cast my first Republican vote for President that same year. Having started voting in presidential races since 2000, I have yet to elect a president (Gore [though I would rather have had McCain or Bradley), Kerry, and then McCain.
Will voters turn as I did to the great surprise and disdain of my family and friends or will they stay home? Look at the years the Christian Coalition voted and when they stayed home. They voted in 94 (when the GOP took back congress), stayed home in 96 when Dole lost, voted in 2000 (a few stayed home over the drunk driving thing which is why it was so close), voted in 04, stayed home in 08 because they didn't trust McCain despite Sarah Palin.
Guess this is more of a $200 then a $.02.